1	Speculations on the Future of Water and Food Security Ismail Serageldin IFPRI 29 March 2004
2	Outline How Scarce Is Water? How Much for Agriculture? Climate Change And Its Impact Problems, Approaches and Reforms The Role Of Science Rebuilding Social Structures: Empowerment Is Key Envoi
3	IFPRI’s Excellent Work 2020 exercise M. Rosegrant, X. Cai and S. Cline, World Water and Food to 2025: Dealing with Scarcity, 2002 IWMI’s work World Vision exercise, 2000. Tokyo Club debates 2002-2004 Others
4	How Scarce Is Water?
5	Fresh water is precious
6	Fresh Water Is Only 2.5% of All Water
7	Two thirds of that is locked in Glaciers and Ice Caps
8	2/3 of the remaining part is lost to Evapotranspiration
9	That leaves only 40,700 KM³ Potentially Available to people
10	Of that 20% are too remote
11	Of the accessible part 3/4 come as floods and are not readily useable
12	With dams, etc. Total water available to humans sustainably is about 12,500 km³
13	Total water available sustainably: 12,500 km³
14	Total water available sustainably: 12,500 km³ About 35% directly used by people About 19% used instream (to dilute pollution, sustain fisheries, maintain wetlands, etc) Therefore, more than 50% or 6,250 km³ is currently used
15	Per Capita Availability Shows Huge Variation
16	Regional per capita availability of water is declining
17	Current Mismanagement
18	Fragmentation by Use In each country at least 6, and sometimes as much as twenty, agencies are involved with water management
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24	International fragmentation About 260 river basins are shared by two or more countries, highlighting the need for collaboration in water management
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26	Water Use And The Environment
27	Rising Water Use In The 20^th Century, Population Grew Three-fold, But Water Use Grew Six-fold!
28	Human Activity Has Had an Impact on Both the Hydrological Cycle and the Quality of Water
29	Three Gorges Construction
30	Storage Capacity in cu.m. / person USA 7000 Australia 5000 So. Africa 700 Ethiopia 25 Kenya 4
31	The Yellow river did not reach the sea 220 days in 1997!
32	In the last 100 years 50% of the world’s wetlands have been lost to development.
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34	Water Budgets Global 97% Salt Water 3% Fresh Water Freshwater 87% Not Accessible 13% Accessible MENA 1% of Accessible Freshwater 5% of World Population
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37	How Much for Agriculture?
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44	Underground water is being mined at unsustainable rates and 10% of world grain production depends on unsustainable aquifer withdrawals.
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50	Irrigated Agriculture in Developing Countries Today accounts for 40% of all crop production 60% of cereals Over the next 30 years, to meet the demands of a larger world population, we must increase: arable irrigated land by 22%, and water withdrawals by 14%
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52	Water Use Efficiency
53	Water Use Efficiency in Agriculture is Low
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55	Many Transfers From main Source to Irrigation System (T-1) From Irrigation to local canal (T-2) From Local canal to field (T-3) From Field to plant (T-4) Plant uptake (T-5)
56	Water Use Efficiency = (T-1) x (T-2) x (T-3) x (T-4) x (T-5)
57	Water Use Efficiency = 0.8 x 0.8 x 0.8 x 0.8 x 0.8 = 0.33
58	Water Use Efficiency = 0.9 x 0.9 x 0.9 x 0.9 x 0.9 = 0.59
59	Quality and Quantity of Water: Pollution Reduces Available/useable water
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62	Freshwater Fish Are Going Extinct at Five Times the Rate of Marine Fish Species
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64	Changing the Way We Manage Water
65	Workable Approaches
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67	More Crop Per Drop!
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70	Increasing Water Use Efficiency Reuse of drainage water from irrigated fields (as in Egypt) Better management of the System (less losses) More efficient delivery techniques More appropriate cropping patterns Precision farming on water use
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72	Increasing Water Use Efficiency Reuse of drainage water from irrigated fields (as in Egypt) Better management of the System (less losses) More efficient delivery techniques More appropriate cropping patterns Precision farming on water use
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75	Increasing Water Use Efficiency Reuse of drainage water from irrigated fields (as in Egypt) Better management of the System (less losses) More efficient delivery techniques More appropriate cropping patterns Precision farming on water use
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79	Increasing Water Use Efficiency Reuse of drainage water from irrigated fields (as in Egypt) Better management of the System (less losses) More efficient delivery techniques More appropriate cropping patterns Precision farming on water use
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81	Increasing Water Use Efficiency Reuse of drainage water from irrigated fields (as in Egypt) Better management of the System (less losses) More efficient delivery techniques More appropriate cropping patterns Precision farming on water use
82	Precision Farming
83	Increasing Water Use Efficiency Reuse of drainage water from irrigated fields (as in Egypt) Better management of the System (less losses) More efficient delivery techniques More appropriate cropping patterns Precision farming on water use
84	Reforms
85	Reforms IWRM More efficient use of water Promoting P4 New water (Alternative sources) Regional and international cooperation
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88	Reforms IWRM More efficient use of water Promoting P4 New water (Alternative sources) Regional and international cooperation
89	Reforms IWRM More efficient use of water Promoting P4 New water (Alternative sources) Regional and international cooperation
90	P4: People Public Private Partnerships Putting people first Mobilizes stakeholders and involves them in the design and implementation of the PPP Recognizes community action
91	Reforms IWRM More efficient use of water Promoting P4 New water (Alternative sources) Regional and international cooperation
92	New Water Sources (US cents /cu.m) Reduce demand = 10 - 70 leakage repair = 10 - 70 Desalination = 20 - 40 (brackish water) Wastewater reuse = 10 – 50 (Only for irrig. & some industry) Desalination = 50 – 90 (sea water)
93	Using Treated Wastewater
94	Reforms IWRM More efficient use of water Promoting P4 New water (Alternative sources) Regional and international cooperation
95	Reforms IWRM More efficient use of water Promoting P4 New water (Alternative sources) Regional and international cooperation
96	Essential Questions Always ask: Who pays? Who benefits? Always trace the shifting and incidence of taxation and subsidies
97	Climate Change And Its Impact
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99	Ozone Hole, 1998 image
100	Hottest Year on Record?
101	Hottest Year on Record?
102	La Nina in the Pacific
103	Hurricane Bonnie
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105	Extreme Variability : Africa’s Burden
106	Climate Variability (Change?) Index of Rainfall in Sahel 1941-1990
107	Climate Variability (Change?) Index of Rainfall in Sahel 1941-1990
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111	Vulnerability Of The Poor The Ability To Accumulate Capital Is Reduced (Selling Off Assets In A Downturn) Overall Economic Growth Is Reduced (Less Poverty Reduction) Rebuilding Social Structures: empowerment Is Key
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118	Food Production and Global Environmental Issues
119	In General Climate change will increase variability of weather phenomena Generally mean declining rain-fall over the long-term Increase vulnerability of poor farmers in the arid and semi-arid zones
120	Questions on Dams
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130	The Role Of Science
131	Science Can Help… Agriculture Water purification and waste management Environmental management (new Industries)
132	Science Can Help… Agriculture Water purification and waste management Environmental management (new Industries)
133	Traditional Wisdom and Modern Science
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135	Harnessing the Genetics Revolution Going beyond marker-assisted selection, tissue culture and genetic maps Recognizing the new revolution in genomics, and QTL analysis Selecting for valuable genes, and not only on phenotype
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137	Major Effort at Developing Better Suited Plants Drought tolerance General resistance to stresses Salt water plants? Halophytes, Mangroves, etc.
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142	Why Not Super Upland Rice by 2020?
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147	Science Can Help… Agriculture Water purification and waste management Environmental management (new Industries)
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149	The Biotechnology Revolution: Promise and Peril
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153	Science Can Help… Agriculture Water purification and waste management Environmental management (new Industries)
154	Oil Dispersing Chemicals Tokyo Bay, July 1997
155	Opens Amazing New Possibilities
156	Here industrial biotechnology can be very helpful…
157	Benefits of Industrial Biotechnology Compared to traditional industrial processes it is more efficient, renewable and cleaner (improvements include from 3 to 10 times reduction in waste)
158	New paradigm of research in industrial biotechnology Gene shuffling and biochip screening Enormous new power Faster, cheaper better designed products
159	Gene Shuffling As a Research Strategy Basically it uses the way nature works, and accelerates it We can do in one week what natural processes would do in one million years Where nature screens by the local environment, we screen by desirable traits The system’s power is when we combine the laboratory shuffling with the huge diversity available in nature
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161	Biochips
162	Testing with biochips
163	Biochips Useful to find out which genes are turned on when we look for high producing strains Biochips can now assay tens of thousands of reactions at single go Move to wafers of biochips, now in development, could lift that number up to 60 million probes!
164	IPR and Lawsuits
165	New paradigm is affecting all aspects of industry The preparation of industrial enzymes a-la-carte The acceleration of drug design and testing And so much more…
166	The power of the new technologies Old paradigm of site directed mutagenesis you could develop 3-6 new protein molecules per month Now we can produce 100,000 different protein molecules per day To analyze this huge diversity we screen them through biochips, and select for the desirable traits
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168	The key and the effect of the new technologies: The breakthroughs are robotic screening and small (chip) size. The two tools work in concert. We now are convinced that we can make any industrial enzyme needed at an industrial scale.
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170	Exciting applications: Industrial enzymes are an environmentally friendly “Clean Technology” because they are biodegradable, a renewable resource, energy efficient, recycle and reduce waste and replace harsh chemicals Industrial enzymes have demonstrable benefits in detergents, textiles, baking, animal feed and biofuel
171	Examples of dramatic changes (due to new enzymatically based processes) Textile treatments: 10 times savings in use of caustic soda and 2.5 times in water Antibiotic production: over five times savings in solvents, environmentally problematic chemicals, steam, CO2 emissions and waste water.
172	And This Is Just the Beginning…
173	Also The Science of Remote Sensing!
174	Remote Sensing As a Tool
175	From Global to Local Remote sensing and fast computers make it possible to link global data bases to local realities Enormous increases in precision NRM
176	Desertification
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178	Challenges: Human Activity and Ecosystem Linkages Spatial Location-specific
179	Remote Sensing Makes Detailed Ecological Analysis Possible
180	Urbanization Can Also Be Tracked
181	Remote Sensing and Water Classical approaches Large variations Depend on quality data (e.g. stream flow) Systemic measurements at regular intervals difficult Remote sensing Strategic, precise information Water availability at basin level Better understanding of systems at low cost
182	Irrigation in the Desert
183	Evaluating water resources Combining satellite estimates with ground-based rainfall data Allows volumetric estimates of water outflow Vital for planning water at the basin level
184	Measuring total evaporation @ 1 km resolution, Jun-Nov ‘99 Map answers the question: where is water being consumed? Helps water resource planners allocate water and manage its distribution Information that can be used by poor farmers
185	Precision Farming
186	Technology Upgrades
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188	Envoi
189	We Need a Collaborative Approach Among Science Organizations for a Systematic Attention to Water and Development Issues
190	International Agencies (UNU, CGIAR Especially ICARDA) and Regional Institutions Must Work Together to Harness Science for Water and Development Issues
191	Innovate! Unleash the Creativity of the Various Actors!
192	It Can Be Done!
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197	Towards Better Tomorrows
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